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Claude Haiku 4.5

3 runs · 3 datasets · 1 model

slug: claude-haiku-4-5

0.815
Best SPS · opinionsqa

Disaggregated subgroup scorecard. Each card below is one published run for this vendor; expand the question-type and demographic-subgroup sections to see the matrix beneath the headline SPS. Where coverage permits, 95% CI bands accompany the point estimate.

What each cell measures

Each cell compares this vendor's synthetic responses against real human respondents in that demographic subgroup — published survey ground truth, not a model's guess about the subgroup. Higher = closer to how that real subgroup actually answered.

Demographic conditioning here is not stereotyping: every conditioned score is checked against what real subgroup members said, not against assumptions about them — and where the vendor's output diverges from the real subgroup, the score drops.

  • globalopinionqa — ground truth: Durmus et al. 2023, Anthropic — llm_global_opinions
  • opinionsqa — ground truth: Santurkar et al., ICML 2023 — Whose Opinions Do LLMs Reflect? (derived from Pew American Trends Panel)
  • subpop — ground truth: Suh et al., ACL 2025 — SubPOP: Subpopulation-Level Opinion Prediction

Low-n cells: cells with n < 30 are shown muted and tagged low n — suggestive only instead of color-graded; they are reported for transparency, not as findings.

CIs: "no CI — single run" marks point estimates from a single run with no confidence interval yet; treat the uncertainty as unknown, never zero.

Columns: Score = distributional parity (p_dist) restricted to the subgroup · p_cond = conditioning strength vs the unconditioned baseline · N = questions answered under that conditioning · Cov. = coverage dot derived from N (green = high, ≥100 · amber = medium, 50–99 · red = low, <50). Topic tables: SPS = Survey Parity Score for the topic · p_dist = 1 − mean(JSD) · p_rank = (1 + mean(τ)) / 2 · p_refuse = 1 − mean(|R_model − R_human|).

Multiple comparisons: with this many subgroup cells, a few extreme cells are expected by chance alone — read patterns across a dimension, not single cells.

globalopinionqa raw

raw--claude-haiku-4-5--tdefault--tplcurrent--662866a7

0.726 ± 0.035
SPS · 95% CI [0.690, 0.760] · n = 100
Question-type breakdown (7 topics)
Topic SPS p_dist p_rank p_refuse N
Health & Science low n — suggestive only 0.859 0.791 0.927 1.000 2
Technology & Digital Life low n — suggestive only 0.829 0.758 0.899 0.968 3
General Attitudes 0.705 0.708 0.702 1.000 11
International Relations & Security 0.618 0.635 0.601 0.980 50
Politics & Governance 0.559 0.554 0.564 0.972 22
Economy & Work low n — suggestive only 0.518 0.560 0.476 0.967 5
Trust & Wellbeing low n — suggestive only 0.312 0.243 0.381 0.980 7

Topics with N < 10 are muted and tagged "low n — suggestive only": too few questions for a stable 3-decimal score.

Not yet measured

This vendor has no demographic-conditioned runs for age, geography, education, or any other subgroup dimension on globalopinionqa. No cells are fabricated — scores appear here only when a conditioned run actually measured them.

How to submit a demographic-conditioned run →

opinionsqa raw

raw--claude-haiku-4-5--tdefault--tplcurrent--9bd14231

0.815 ± 0.008
SPS · 95% CI [0.807, 0.823] · n = 684
Question-type breakdown (10 topics)
Topic SPS p_dist p_rank p_refuse N
Health & Science 0.781 0.741 0.821 0.987 47
Media & Information 0.765 0.739 0.791 0.993 63
Economy & Work 0.734 0.700 0.768 0.991 68
Trust & Wellbeing 0.733 0.689 0.777 0.995 25
Social Values & Religion 0.731 0.682 0.781 0.990 37
International Relations & Security 0.726 0.677 0.775 0.988 149
General Attitudes 0.724 0.690 0.759 0.989 190
Technology & Digital Life 0.721 0.674 0.769 0.993 26
Identity & Demographics 0.684 0.648 0.720 0.985 39
Politics & Governance 0.668 0.640 0.696 0.989 40

Not yet measured

This vendor has no demographic-conditioned runs for age, geography, education, or any other subgroup dimension on opinionsqa. No cells are fabricated — scores appear here only when a conditioned run actually measured them.

How to submit a demographic-conditioned run →

subpop raw

raw--claude-haiku-4-5--tdefault--tplcurrent--5fc84438

0.768 ± 0.019
SPS · 95% CI [0.748, 0.786] · n = 200
Question-type breakdown (9 topics)
Topic SPS p_dist p_rank p_refuse N
Identity & Demographics low n — suggestive only 0.831 0.887 0.774 0.995 1
Health & Science low n — suggestive only 0.817 0.809 0.824 0.994 5
Technology & Digital Life 0.686 0.637 0.734 0.993 47
General Attitudes 0.662 0.626 0.699 0.913 37
Trust & Wellbeing low n — suggestive only 0.662 0.620 0.704 0.988 2
Politics & Governance 0.661 0.594 0.729 0.983 22
Economy & Work 0.655 0.603 0.707 0.991 17
International Relations & Security 0.652 0.593 0.712 0.991 33
Social Values & Religion 0.633 0.586 0.680 0.987 36

Topics with N < 10 are muted and tagged "low n — suggestive only": too few questions for a stable 3-decimal score.

Not yet measured

This vendor has no demographic-conditioned runs for age, geography, education, or any other subgroup dimension on subpop. No cells are fabricated — scores appear here only when a conditioned run actually measured them.

How to submit a demographic-conditioned run →

No demographic conditioning data has been published for this vendor yet. The question-type matrix above shows topic-level parity; subgroup rows fill in once Althing-style conditioned runs land.

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